With just one Gameweek remaining, the focus is on securing ranks and making strategic transfers. Here’s a breakdown of the team’s current status and potential moves:
Goalkeeper
- Raya (Arsenal): Back in goal with an undeniably better fixture away to Southampton compared to Martinez’s trip to Old Trafford. The main concern is Arsenal’s potentially rotated lineup, with second place all but secured.
Defenders
- Vardial (Man City): Remains in the team. His clean sheet odds are 34% against Fulham.
- Saliba (Arsenal): A key player, but a hamstring concern from the last game makes his availability uncertain. His fixture against Southampton is excellent. If he misses out, there’s good defensive depth on the bench.
- Burn (Newcastle): Has strong clean sheet odds (45%) against Everton, who lack motivation. Newcastle, on the other hand, have a must-win game for Champions League qualification.
- Defensive Depth: Wambisaka and Konate provide strong bench options if Saliba or another defender misses out. Wambisaka’s wing-back role offers potential for attacking returns.
Overall Defensive Strategy: The focus is on playing defenders with strong clean sheet potential and high motivation from their respective teams.
Midfielders
- Salah (Liverpool): Captaincy Pick. Despite Liverpool’s recent form, a gut feeling suggests they will finish the season strongly at home to Palace. Salah’s historical FPL performance makes him a compelling captaincy choice, especially with high effective ownership.
- Bowen (West Ham): The primary transfer target if Isak is fit. His high effective ownership in the top 10K makes him a protection pick, but he also offers significant upside against Ipswich.
- Eze (Crystal Palace): Benched last game, but expected to start against Liverpool after scoring off the bench. He’s on penalties and will be considered for a free transfer if Isak is available.
- Neto (Wolves): A breakout season with impressive goal contributions. He faces Wolves away, and while Europe is still possible for Brentford, the advice is to play without overthinking.
- Rodgers (Aston Villa): An unbelievable season for a 5M asset, with 8 goals and 11 assists. He faces a Manchester United side with nothing to play for, while Villa are still fighting for Champions League.
Forwards
- Watkins (Aston Villa): Comes into the final Gameweek after a five-pointer. He’s doubled up with Rodgers in attack, hoping for linking play.
- Isak (Newcastle): A crucial pick for a fantastic fixture against Everton. There are rumors of post-season surgery, but the hope is he was rested for this more winnable fixture. He’s expected to have some of the best goalscorer odds.
- Whistler (Brentford): Another strong attacking option, doubled up with Neto. His underlying numbers are impressive, especially without penalties.
Bench
- Martinez (Aston Villa): Faces Man United away, which isn’t the worst fixture, but Raya is preferred.
- Wambasaka (Man Utd): If Saliba misses out, Wambasaka is a capable sub with an away fixture against Ipswich. His wing-back role could offer attacking returns.
- Sa (Wolves): Bench option.
- Konate (Liverpool): Bench option, with better clean sheet odds than Wambasaka, but less goal threat.
Transfer Plans
The strategy revolves around the fitness of Isak:
- Option 1: If Isak is OUT: Transfer Isak to Evan Ferguson (Brighton) to target a home fixture against Leicester.
- Option 2: If Isak is IN: Transfer Eze to Bowen (West Ham). This protects against Bowen’s high effective ownership in the top 10K and offers upside against Ipswich.
Overall Goal: The primary objective is to secure a top 5K finish, currently being 7 points inside.
Key Learnings from the Season 2024/2025
- Save the Triple Captain chip: Unexpected postponements or massive hauls from other players can make holding the chip more beneficial.
- Don’t over-rely on highly owned players: While effective ownership is important, sometimes differential picks like Trossard or Strand Larsen can make a significant difference.
- Defense BPS changes: The changes introduced at the start of the season heavily penalized goals conceded, impacting defensive returns. This should be a consideration for future seasons.
- Luck plays a part: Despite things going wrong, a good FPL season can still be achieved.
